In terms of straight-line races at Ascot Racecourse, everybody agrees that observe type is essential. So perhaps June 15 Duke of Cambridge Staking (G2) is an open and closed case: it is going to be Mom Earth .
Of the eight runners within the lineup, Mom Earth is the one horse to have scored a Race Score in extra of 100 on a straight run at Ascot. That units the usual.
Her solely run on a straight mile at this course resulted in a 3 3/4 size end Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) final 12 months, and she or he was awarded 115 RPR.
That’s higher than some other horse has managed to attain at any racetrack, Saffron Seashore’s 118 bar at Newmarket final 12 months, however Saffron Seashore there’s a 5 pound penalty for that group 1 success.
Mom Earth is subsequently in the precise configuration. One mile is her journey, she has finest total type at weights, finest type on the course, and is coached by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. They’ve partnered with nearly twice as many Royal Ascot winners than some other coach and racing mixture this century. Absolutely others may not present up as effectively?
If racing have been so simple as that, the bookies wouldn’t exist, and if one thing appeared too good to be true, it may very well be too good to be true. That’s the adage I adhere to, and relationships clearly don’t see this as a penalty for Mom Earth as a result of they’ve now matched free kicks for the primary time.
As O’Brien reached for the sheepskin, alarm bells rang in my head, as a result of his report for including that headgear was excellent. For the reason that begin of 2017, he has solely had six winners out of 65 first time runners (9%) assisted.
That 9% strike price was lower than half his whole strike price (19%) in Nice Britain and Eire on the time, and his horses improved for his or her first expertise of headgear. His report with the horses in second stints is significantly better at 9 to 31 (29%; +25.37 kilos to £1).
If that’s not sufficient of a deterrent to you, then look to the opposition. Sure, Mom Earth is the one horse with any type of working, however six of the remaining seven have but to run in Ascot’s straight, and the way do we all know they received’t at the very least be no good, if don’t need to say is best?
Take for instance Saffron Seashore. She hasn’t run right here but, however her male New Bay descendants appear to like Ascot’s straight line. Males are 4 for 10 on the course and two of the winners have come on this mile journey, together with a Royal Ascot winner—Perotto in Britannia final 12 months.
So when the professional on TV tells you the type of the course is essential and Saffron Seashore doesn’t, sit again and chill out within the security of figuring out that racing is far more difficult.
‘We all know she’s in good coaching’
Saffron Seashore lifted coach Jane Chapple-Hyam final season to ranges she wasn’t aware of, ending second within the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) at Newmarket and returning to the identical course within the fall to land the wheel. first group of 1 within the Kingdom of Shares Bahrain Solar Chariot (G1).
Saffron Seashore runs on Solar Chariot Stakes in Newmarket
The 4-year-old returned with one other excellent efficiency within the Dubai Turf sponsored by DP World (G1) as he completed fourth behind the leaders Panthalassa and Lord North her connection win £185,185.19, £10,000 greater than the quantity received within the Duke of Cambridge on 15 June.
Nevertheless, Royal Ascot’s status means it should all the time be on Saffron Seashore’s schedule this season, with Chapple-Hyam wanting so as to add to her sole success on the assembly, when Judgmentthemoment received the 2009 Ascot Stakes.
Runners within the colours of James Wigan, Ollie Sangster and Ben Sangster, Chapple-Hyam’s step-brother, who stated: “We all know she’s coaching effectively and has a superb match for the race, which is what constructive together with the bottom. She is a really gifted particular person and Jane is happy with what she has executed, so you’ll count on that she will probably be very aggressive on this race.”
Mom Earth will cross swords for the fourth time with Saffron Seashore as the 2 line up at Royal Ascot. Motherland captures QIPCO One Thousand Guineas (G1), with Saffron Seashore coming in second. Saffron Seashore reversed that ending in Solar Chariot Stakes (G1). Mom Earth got here in second within the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (G1), with Saffron Seashore in eleventh final summer time in Newmarket.
O’Brien picked up a set of on-court results after she completed the pitch at Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1) final time, and stated: “Issues didn’t occur to her in Lockinge. It opened up too. early for her and it was not applicable. She is a docile, protecting particular person and that’s why we determined to provide her a makeover. We determined to return right here as a substitute of Feminine. Queen Anne, and we’ve been very completely satisfied along with her since Newbury.”
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